National Emission Projections

Greenhouse gas emission projections provide a forecast of future emissions and are a valuable analytical tool to inform how Ireland will comply with 2020 targets under the EU Effort Sharing Decision (Decision 406/2009/EC). The EPA develops national emission projections on an annual basis, in collaboration with relevant State and other bodies. This collaboration ensures consistency with economic forecasts and with projected activity in sectors including energy, agriculture, and industry.

Overview

The National Climate Change Strategy (2007) designated the EPA with responsibility for developing national emission projections for greenhouse gases for all key sectors of the economy. Emission projections serve to inform national policy initiatives and allow Ireland to comply with EU reporting obligations on projections (Monitoring Mechanism Regulation 525/2013). 

Two scenarios are produced showing a different outlook for emission levels depending on the level of policy implementation:

  • With Existing Measures (WEM) scenario assumes that no additional policies and measures, beyond those already in place by the end of 2015, are implemented.
  • The With Additional Measures scenario assumes implementation of the With Measures scenario in addition to, based on current progress, further implementation of Government renewable and energy efficiency targets for 2020, as set out in the National Renewable Energy Action Plan (NREAP) and the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP).  For 2017 projections, the With Additional Measures scenario takes into account an expected shortfall in achieving full energy efficiency targets and renewable energy targets for electricity, transport and heat as set out in the NEEAP and NREAP.

Under the EU Commission’s Climate and Energy Package, Ireland is required to deliver a 20% reduction in non-ETS greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 (relative to 2005 levels). In addition, Ireland also has binding annual emission limits for the period 2013-2020 to ensure a gradual move towards the 2020 target. The non-ETS sectors cover those that are outside the EU Emissions Trading Scheme and includes the agriculture, transport, residential, commercial, waste and non-energy intensive industry.

A new Effort Sharing Regulation which will set out targets out to 2030 for each Member State is currently being developed. 2030 targets for Ireland have not yet been finalised.

As part of the 2017 projections reporting the EPA has produced a summary report which provides an updated assessment of Ireland's progress towards achieving its emission reduction targets set under the EU Effort Sharing Decision for the years 2013-2020.  The report also provides information on the EU and national policy position context and emission projections beyond 2020. 

Download the EPA 2017 greenhouse gas emission projections report

Further links to 2017 Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections data:

Link to Ireland's 2017 Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections submission under the EU Monitoring Mechanism Regulation

The above link includes:

  • MS Excel Table 1 -  Projections by category, gas, Total Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections, ETS and Non ETS emission projections out to 2035 under both the with existing measures and with additional measures scenarios
  • MS Excel Tables 3 and 4 -  Projections parameters and model descriptions
  • Ireland's 2017 Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections Technical Approach and Methodology Document

Download 2017 Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections Approach and Methodology document

Download Non Emission Trading Scheme (Non ETS) sector emissions and projections totals, and Annual Emission Allocations for 2013 to 2020

Link to previous reports

Download the EPA 2016 greenhouse gas emission projections bulletin

Download previous EPA 2015 greenhouse gas emission projections report

If you have any questions or enquiries, please contact the emissions projections team at EmissionsProjections@epa.ie.