Climate change

Planning for a Climate Resilient Ireland, Ireland's first statutory National Adaptation Framework (NAF) was approved in 2018. The NAF sets out the national strategy to reduce the vulnerability of the country to the negative effects of climate change and to avail of any positive impacts. The NAF was developed under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2015 and prepared in the context of the 2013 EU strategy on adaptation to climate change.  

The NAF builds on the work already carried out under the 2012 National Change Adaptation Framework (NCCAF). The NAF outlines a whole of government and society approach to climate adaptation in Ireland. Under the NAF a number of Government Departments are required to prepare sectoral adaptation plans in relation to a priority area that they are responsible for. Local authorities are required to prepare local adaptation strategies. The NAF will be reviewed at least once every five years. The NAF also aims to improve the enabling environment for adaptation through ongoing engagement with civil society, the private sector and the research community. 

The 12 priority sectors and all local authorities now have climate change adaptation plans and strategies in place. These were published in 2019 and will be reviewed at least once every five years. 

Further Information

For more on national, sectoral and local adaptation see the Department of the Environment, Climate and Communications.

For more adaptation information and climate data see Ireland’s climate information platform, Climate Ireland.  

In 2018, the global temperature had been increased by 1.0°C relative to pre-industrial levels. At the current rate of warming, the world is expected to reach 1.5°C warming between 2030 and 2052 (IPCC, 2008).  If this continues, the 2°C increase could occur around 2060.  Globally the two main features of climate change are: 

• changes in the rate of occurrence and scales of extreme weather events, such as heatwaves or rainfall events, and  
• slow onset changes such as sea-level rise, loss of glaciers, and ecosystem changes. 

For Ireland, by 2050 (mid-century) mean annual temperatures are projected to increase by between 1 and 1.2℃, and between 1.3 and 1.6℃ depending on the emissions trajectory. Heatwave events are expected to increase by mid-century and this will have a direct impact on public health and mortality. These changes may affect the life cycle (phenological) phases in many plant and animal species. By mid-century there are projected increases in both dry periods and heavy precipitation events, meaning we will have to consider increased flood risk as well as droughts. There is also the possibility that, although average wind speed may decrease, the intensity of individual storms may increase.  

Building performance will be challenged by a changing climate, needing to cope with more extreme summer temperatures, intense rainfall events and potential changes in wind and storm patterns. This will require appropriate design and building standards, but also adaptation of existing building stock.  

As our climate changes, it will create new conditions that may allow existing pests and diseases to spread and new threats to become established in Ireland. Our infrastructure systems are likely to be impacted by an increase in disruptive events and our water quality and supply might be affected.  

Global mean sea level rise by 2100 is likely to be in the range of 0.29m to 1.10m (depending on the emissions scenario) and sea levels will continue to rise far beyond the year 2100.   

Predicted changes in mean sea level will be magnified by changing storm surge and wave patterns in coastal areas. Sea level rise varies regionally but increasing sea levels around Ireland would result in increased coastal erosion, flooding and damage to property and infrastructure.  High-resolution mid-century climate projections for Ireland were published by the EPA in 2020 and are available at Climate Ireland.

The greenhouse effect is the name given to the process whereby the energy which has arrived from the Sun can warm the planet to temperatures well above those which would be expected if there was no atmosphere present. A very simplified explanation of how this works is as follows:

The Sun’s energy is either reflected back into space or passes through the atmosphere to be absorbed at the surface of the Earth. The absorbed energy warms the surface, producing thermal radiation, heating the atmosphere from below.   On its way back to space, the thermal energy is captured by certain gases in the atmosphere, and this heats the atmosphere further. These gases are called greenhouse gases. This simple explanation is illustrated in the image below.

 Greenhouse gases (ghg), although they constitute only a small fraction of the atmosphere, their impact on climate is very important. Without greenhouse gases, the Earth’s surface would have an average temperature of -18oC, too cold for life as we know it. Instead the average temperature at the surface of the Earth is approximately +15oC.  Changing the atmospheric concentration of these greenhouse gases and other particles in the atmosphere can lead to a warming or cooling of the climate system. 

The IPCC provides the detailed explanation of the Greenhouse Effect.

For more information on this topic, see Chapter 2: Observations: Atmosphere and Surface, of the IPCC 5th Assessment Report, Working Group 1, The Physical Science Basis (2013)

The earths climate has remained relatively stable for most of human history.  This is evident from temperature records some of which date back to the mid-1800s and before this based on reconstruction from other records and measurements e.g. tree rings.   Since about the middle of the 20th Century an increasing trend is evident in the global temperature record. This is frequently referred to as global warming, but the term can include other changes such as melting of ice and thermal expansion of the oceans which is a major contributor to sea-level rise.

Human influence on the climate system is clear. This is evident from the increasing greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, observed warming, and our current understanding of the climate system. 

It is extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. 

Since the start of the industrial era (about 1750), the overall effect of human activities on climate has been a warming influence. The human impact on climate during this era greatly exceeds that due to known changes in natural processes, such as solar changes and volcanic eruptions. 

For more information and further reading on this topic go IPPC Working Group 1 Annual Review 5 Summary for Policy Makers