Ireland’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions Projections 2018-2040

Summary: This report provides an updated assessment of Ireland’s total projected greenhouse gas emissions out to 2040 which includes an assessment of progress towards achieving its emission reduction targets out to 2020 and 2030 set under the EU Effort Sharing Decision (Decision No 406/2009/EU) and Effort Sharing Regulation (Regulation (EU) 2018/842).

Published: 2019

Pages: 24

 

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Key Insights

  • There is a long-term projected decrease in greenhouse gas emissions as a result of inclusion of new climate mitigation policies and measures that formed part of the National Development Plan (NDP) which was published in 2018. This is evident in the With Additional Measures scenario which assumes full implementation of the programmes, policies and measures included in the NDP.
  • Fossil fuels such as coal, peat and gas continue to be key contributors to emissions from the power generation sector. However a significant reduction in emissions over the longer term is projected as a result of the expansion of renewables (e.g. wind), assumed to reach 41-54% by 2030, with a move away from coal and peat.
  • A growth in emissions from the transport sector continues to be projected which is largely attributed to fuel consumption from diesel cars and diesel freight. A decrease in emissions over the longer term, most notably in the With Additional Measures scenario, is largely attributed to assumed accelerated deployment of 500,000 electric vehicles and the impact of greater biofuel uptake.
  • Agriculture emissions are projected to continue to grow steadily over the period which is mainly a result of an increase in animal numbers particularly for the dairy herd.
  • The implementation of additional energy efficiency measures included in the National Development Plan will see a significant reduction in emissions in the residential, commercial/public services and manufacturing sectors over the projected period.
  • The projections reflect plans to bring Ireland onto a lower carbon trajectory in the longer term. However, Ireland still faces significant challenges in meeting EU 2030 reduction targets in the non ETS sector and national 2050 reduction targets in the electricity generation, built environment and transport sectors. Progress in achieving targets is dependent on the level of implementation of current and future plans.
  • The 2019 emission projections do not consider the impact of new policies and measures that will be included in the forthcoming Government Climate Plan1. It is anticipated that emission projections prepared later in 2019 to inform the preparation of Ireland’s final National Energy and Climate Plan (due by 31st December 2019)2 will include the additional impact of the Government Climate Plan.