Date released: May 27, 2024
28th May 2024: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has today published its greenhouse gas emissions projections for the period 2023-2050.
EPA analysis shows that planned climate policies and measures, if fully implemented, could deliver up to 29 per cent emissions reduction by 2030 compared to 2018, a reduction of 4 per cent each year from 2023 to 2030. This is insufficient to achieve the ambition of 51 per cent emissions reduction in Ireland’s Climate Act.
The first two carbon budgets (2021-2030), which aim to support achievement of the 51 per cent emissions reduction goal, are projected to be exceeded by a significant margin of between 17 and 27 per cent.
All sectors, except Residential buildings, are projected to underperform relative to the sectoral emissions ceilings. Agriculture, Industry and Electricity sectors are projected to be the furthest from their sectoral ceiling in 2030.
Laura Burke, Director General, EPA said:
“The EPA’s projections show that full delivery of all climate action plans and policies could deliver a 29 per cent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions. This is well short of both our European and National emission reduction targets and highlights the scale of effort required to achieve the required reductions across all sectors of our economy. The key priority must be to translate the aspiration in our policies and plans to implementation on the ground.”
Ms Burke added:
“The transition to a low carbon society is building momentum in Ireland. We see this with more electric vehicles on our roads, renewable electricity powering our homes and adoption of new farm practices. However, we need to speed up and scale up the transition”.
Agriculture
Total emissions from the Agriculture sector are projected to decrease by between 1 and 18 per cent over the period 2022 to 2030. Savings are projected from a variety of measures including limits on nitrogen fertiliser usage, switching to different fertilisers and bovine feed additives. The higher ambition scenario assumes that most of the measures outlined in Climate Action Plan 2024, AgClimatise and Teagasc (MACC) are in place.
Transport
Emissions from the sector are projected to reduce by 26 per cent over the period 2022 to 2030 if the measures set out in plans and policies are implemented. These include over 940,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030, increased biofuel blend rates and measures to support more sustainable transport. Road freight is projected to be the biggest source of road transport greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.
Energy
Driven by a reduction in fossil fuel usage and increased net importation of electricity from interconnectors, there was a marked drop of almost 24 per cent in emissions from electricity generation between 2022 and 2023. In combination with planned increases in renewable energy generation from wind and solar, energy sector emissions are projected to reduce by 62 per cent and achieve over 80 per cent renewable electricity generation by 2030.
Land use
Emissions from this sector are projected to increase between 23 per cent to 99 per cent over the period of 2023 to 2030 as our forestry reaches harvesting age and changes from a carbon sink to a carbon source. Planned policies and measures for the sector, such as increased afforestation, water table management on agricultural organic soils and peatland rehabilitation, are projected to reduce the extent of the emissions increase.
Commenting, Mary Frances Rochford, Programme Manager said:
“The EPA projections show the importance of accelerating the delivery of renewable technologies to support decarbonised electrification across the economy, adopting known emission reduction technologies while new solutions are developed in agriculture, providing alternatives to car and freight transport, and taking action to reduce emissions from land to reduce Ireland’s emissions. Increasing the pace of implementation will deliver the required emission reductions and create space for adoption of further policies and measures.”
For further detail on these figures, see the EPA report Greenhouse Gas Emission Projections 2023 to 2050 and EPA Greenhouse Gas web resource on the EPA website.
Notes to Editor
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is the national body with responsibility to develop, prepare and publish projections of greenhouse gas emissions for Ireland. The EPA produces national greenhouse gas emission projections on an annual basis. These projections are compiled in accordance with, and to meet, EU reporting obligations. At a national level this report informs policy and monitors and reports Ireland’s climate action performance to Government under the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act (Amendment) 2021 and to the public as outlined in the Climate Action Plan, 2024.
It is an obligation under the Climate Act that, where the total greenhouse gas emissions for a preceding budget period exceed the carbon budget for that period, the excess greenhouse gas emissions from the preceding budget period is carried forward to the next period. The carbon budget for the next period is then decreased by the amount carried forward.
The EPA’s Greenhouse Gas Emission projection is an estimate of what emission levels are likely to be in the future. They are based on key assumptions such as economic growth, fuel prices and Government policy.
This is the second set of projections prepared following the enactment of the Climate Act and the 51 per cent target contained therein. The policies and measures contained in the current Climate Action Plan 2024 and previous Plans are included in the projections with a number of exceptions including:
New scientific research has led to a reduction in emissions from the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector which by 2030, with full implementation of planned measures, is projected to be 10 per cent of total national emissions compared to the 17 per cent reported last year.
EU Targets
EU greenhouse gas emission targets and reduction obligations for Ireland are split into two broad categories. The first category covers the large energy and power (i.e. energy intensive) industry which are controlled under the EU Emissions Trading System. The second category deals with the non- EU Emissions Trading System sectors such as agriculture, transport, residential, commercial, waste and non-energy intensive industry.
The Environmental Protection Agency produces greenhouse gas emissions projections on an annual basis for all sectors of the economy in collaboration with relevant State and other bodies. The following are key underlying data that underpin this year’s greenhouse gas emissions projections:
On 14th May 2018, the European Council adopted a regulation (EU 2018/842 – the Effort Sharing Regulation) on greenhouse gas emission reductions. The regulation sets out binding emission reduction targets for member states in sectors falling outside the scope of the EU emissions trading system for the period 2021-2030. In April 2023 the Effort Sharing Regulation was amended (EU 2023/857) and Ireland’s new 2030 target under the Effort Sharing Regulation is to limit its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 42 per cent by 2030.
Annual emission limits out to 2025 for the 42 per cent reduction were set by the EU in 2023, with limits out to 2030 to be set later in 2024. Under the Effort Sharing Regulation two flexibilities may be utilised to allow for a fair and cost-efficient achievement of the target. These flexibilities are the use of EU Emissions Trading System allowances and credit from action undertaken in the Land use, Land use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector.
Flexibilities under the Effort Sharing Regulation include the allowance by eligible Member States to achieve their national targets by covering some emissions with EU ETS allowances which would normally have been auctioned. EU-wide, this cannot be more than a combined total of 100 million tonnes CO2 over the period 2021-2030. The ETS flexibility allows Ireland to transfer emissions of up to 4 per cent of 2005 levels per annum, or 19.1 Mt CO2 eq from the non-ETS to ETS sector, reducing the mitigation requirement in the non-ETS sector while cancelling the corresponding ETS allowances.
Also, to stimulate additional action in the land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector, Member States can use up to a combined (EU-wide) total of 262 million credits over the entire period 2021-2030 to comply with their national targets. The LULUCF flexibility allows for Ireland to account for greenhouse gas removals of up to 26.8 Mt CO2 eq over two compliance periods 2021-2025 and 2026-2030.
Scenarios Used
Greenhouse gas emissions are projected to the year 2050 using two scenarios:
