Ireland's 2030 target under the EU's Effort Sharing Regulations (ESR) is to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by at least 42% by 2030. The latest projections (May 2024) indicate that that currently implemented measures (With Existing Measures) will achieve a reduction of 9% on 2005 levels by 2030, significantly short of the 42% reduction target. If measures in the higher ambition (With Additional Measures) scenario are implemented, EPA projections show that Ireland can achieve a reduction of 25% by 2030, also short of the 42% reduction target.
The 42% reduction target now applies for 2030, but new annual emission limits that are binding under the ESR have yet to be fully implemented. To-date new AEAs have been implemented for 2021 to 2025 only. Limits for 2026-2030 have been estimated as per the methodology in the 2023 amendment of the Effort Sharing Regulation.
The ESR provides two flexibilities (EU-ETS and LULUCF) to allow for a fair and cost-efficient achievement of the targets. New Regulations in 2023 mean there are new rules around LULUCF flexibility that incorporates split budgets 2021-2025 to 2026-20301. Additional analyses are needed to estimate the impact of the new rules on flexibility. In the interim, based on latest LULUCF inventory and projections data, the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility now projected to be available is 13.4 Mt CO2 eq in the first 5-year period (or 2.68 Mt CO2 eq per annum from 2021-2025), with no flexibility available in the second 5-year period.
EPA projections show in the figure below, that use of the EU-ETS flexibility alone will not achieve compliance under the ESR. When the ETS flexibility is applied projections indicate that Ireland will cumulatively exceed the ESR 2021-2030 emissions allocation by 31.1 Mt CO2 eq even with implementation of policies and measures in the WAM scenario. The projections also show that use of both flexibilities (EU-ETS and LULUCF) will not achieve compliance under the ESR. When both flexibilities are applied projections indicate that Ireland will cumulatively exceed the ESR 2021-2030 emissions by 17.7 Mt CO2 eq even with implementation of policies and measures in the WAM scenario.
1 https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2023/839/oj?eliuri=eli:reg:2023:839:oj, Article 7 (1) (a) and (aa)
Projected emissions and Annual Emission Allocations (AEAs) under the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR) for the period 2021-2030.
The ESR targets are defined under the IPCC's 5th Assessment Report (AR5) Global warming potentials (GWP), therefore, the graph below shows the latest Projected WEM and WAM Non ETS emissions using AR5 GWPs. Projections indicate that Ireland cannot achieve overall ESR compliance over the period 2021 to 2030 even with full implementation of the Climate Action Plan 2024 and the use of the flexibilities available. In terms of the 2030 targets, the ESR provides two flexibilities (use of ETS allowances and credit from action undertaken in the Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) sector) to allow for a fair and cost-efficient achievement of the targets.
In order to achieve Ireland's commitment to realising a climate neutral economy by 2050 the Climate Action and Low Carbon Development (Amendment) Act 2021 provides for the establishment of carbon budgets as interim milestones on this trajectory. The 51% target is the primary constraint on carbon budgets over the course of the first two budget periods ending on 31 December 2030, relative to 2018 emissions.
Ireland’s Climate Act ambition of a 51% emissions reduction by 2030, including LULUCF (compared to 2018) is not projected to be achieved. The projections show that implemented policies and measures in the With Existing Measures (WEM) scenario can only deliver an 11% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 compared to the 2018 level. The WAM scenario, including policies and measures from the 2024 Climate Action Plan, is projected to deliver a 29% emissions reduction over the same period.
