In 2023, Ireland’s GHG emissions are estimated to be 55.01 million tonnes carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2eq), which is 6.8% lower (or 4.00 Mt CO2 eq) than emissions in 2022 (59.00 Mt CO2 eq) and follows a 2.0% decrease in emissions reported for 2022. Emissions are 1.2% below the historical 1990 baseline for the first time in 33 years.
In 2023 emissions in the stationary ETS1 emissions decreased (17%) and emissions under the ESR (Effort Sharing Regulation) decreased (3.4%). When LULUCF is included, total national emissions decreased by 3.8%.
Decreased emissions in 2023 compared to 2022 were observed in the largest sectors except for transport which showed an increase of 0.3% shown highlighted red in the "Emissions change 2022-2023" table below.
Emissions per capita decreased from 11.4 tonnes CO2eq/person in 2022 to 10.4 tonnes CO2eq/person in 2023. Ireland’s average tonnes of GHG/capita over the last ten years were 12.1 tonnes. With recent CSO preliminary 2023 census data showing a population of 5.28 million people and with population projected to increase to 5.5 million in 2030, 5.9 million in 2040 and 6.2 million by 2050, per capita emissions need to reduce significantly. At current per capita emission levels, each addition 500,000 people would contribute an additional 5 million tonnes of CO2eq annually.
Arresting growth in emissions is a challenge in the context of a growing economy but one which must continue to be addressed by households, business, farmers and communities if Ireland is to reap the benefits of a low-carbon economy.
Show emissions change 2022-2023
| Mt CO2 eq | 2022 | 2023 | % Change | |
| Agriculture | 21.795 | 20.782 | -4.6% | |
| Transport | 11.760 | 11.791 | 0.3% | |
| Energy Industries | 10.003 | 7.845 | -21.6% | |
| Residential | 5.753 | 5.346 | -7.1% | |
| Manufacturing Combustion | 4.334 | 4.133 | -4.6% | |
| Industrial Processes | 2.288 | 2.155 | -5.8% | |
| F-Gases | 0.741 | 0.699 | -5.7% | |
| Commercial Services | 0.751 | 0.732 | -2.5% | |
| Public Services | 0.696 | 0.677 | -2.7% | |
| Waste | 0.881 | 0.846 | -4.0% | |
| LULUCF | 3.983 | 5.614 | 40.9% | |
| Total excluding LULUCF | 59.003 | 55.007 | -6.8% | |
| Total including LULUCF | 62.986 | 60.620 | -3.8% | |
Open in Excel: Change 2022-2023 table July 2024 (XLS 11KB)
The provisional greenhouse gas emission inventory for 2023 is the third of ten years over which compliance with targets set in the European Union’s Effort Sharing Regulation (EU 2018/842) will be assessed. This Regulation sets 2030 targets for emissions outside of the Emissions Trading Scheme (known as ESR emissions) and annual binding national limits for the period 2021-2030. Ireland’s target is to reduce it's greenhouse gas emissions by at least 42% by 2030 compared with 2005 levels, with a number of flexibilities available to assist in achieving this. The ESR includes the sectors outside the scope of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) (such as Agriculture, Transport, Residential, Public Services and Commercial Services and Waste).
Ireland’s ESR emissions annual limit for 2023 is 40.52 Mt CO2eq. Ireland’s provisional 2023 greenhouse gas ESR emissions are 42.79 Mt CO2eq, this is 2.27 Mt CO2eq more than the annual limit for 2023. This value is the national total emissions less emissions generated by stationary combustion i.e. power plants, cement plants, and domestic aviation operations that are within the EU’s emissions trading scheme. .Cumulatively from 2021-2023 and after using the ETS flexibility, Ireland is in compliance with the
ESR by a net distance to target of 0.15 Mt CO2eq, although in 2023 there is an exceedance of 0.36 Mt CO2eq above its Annual Emissions Allocation with the ETS flexibility. Agriculture and Transport accounted for 76.0% of total ESR emissions in 2023. The revised LULUCF Regulation (2023) incorporates new rules around LULUCF flexibilities for the period 2021-2025 and 2026-2030. There is a high degree of uncertainty relating to the availability of the LULUCF flexibility and, if available, the quantity of flexibility in each budgetary period.
The latest projections (May 2024) indicate that currently implemented measures (With Existing Measures) will achieve a reduction of 9% on 2005 levels by 2030, significantly short of the 42% reduction target. If measures in the higher ambition (With Additional Measures) scenario are implemented, EPA projections show that Ireland can achieve a reduction of 25% by 2030, still short of the 42% reduction target.
In terms of the 2030 targets, the ESR provides two flexibilities (use of ETS allowances and credit from action undertaken in the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector) to allow for a fair and cost-efficient achievement of the targets. New Regulations in 2023 mean there are new rules around LULUCF flexibility that incorporates split budgets 2021-2025 to 2026-2030[1]. Additional analyses are needed to estimate the impact of the new rules on flexibilities. In the interim, based on latest LULUCF inventory and projections data, the maximum amount of LULUCF flexibility now projected to be available is 13.4 Mt CO2eq in the first 5-year period (or 2.68 Mt CO2 eq per annum), with no flexibility available in the second 5-year period.
[1] https://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX%3A02018R0842-20230516&qid=1710343267770, Article 7 (1) (a) and (aa)
Effort Sharing Regulation emissions and targets
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
| Total greenhouse gas emissions without LULUCF | 60,191 | 59,003 | 55,007 | ||
| - Total verified emissions from stationary installations under Directive 2003/87/EC | 15,320 | 14,686 | 12,189 | ||
| - CO2 emissions from domestic aviation | 20 | 21 | 31 | ||
| Total ESR emissions† | 44,852 | 44,295 | 42,787 | ||
| ESR Annual Emission Allocation | 43,479 | 42,357 | 40,520 | 38,683 | 36,845 |
| Gross distance to target | - 1,373 | - 1,938 | -2,267 | ||
| + annualised ETS flexibility† | 1,908 | 1,908 | 1,908 | 1,908 | 1,908 |
| Net distance to target | 535 | - 30 | -359 | ||
| † Set out in Annex II and Annex III of Commission Implementing Decision (EU) 2020/2126[2] with additional potential flexibilities arising from LULUCF | |||||
Open in Excel: ESR Targets Table July 2024 (XLS 12KB)
As the graph below shows Ireland has higher than average emissions of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) because we have the highest agriculture emission contribution towards national total emissions from any of the EU member states. A similar pattern can be seen in New Zealand where agriculture is also an important part of the economy. These figures reflect the relative importance of agriculture to Ireland’s economy, and the lack of heavy industry in comparison to some other member states. Agricultural emissions are dominated by CH4 from enteric fermentation and manure management and N2O from fertiliser, manure applied to land and animal excreta deposited directly onto pasture. The graph below is total net emissions (including LULUCF) based on 2022 data, which is the most recent available on the EEA data viewer.
Ireland’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions increased in the period from 1990 to 2001 where it peaked at 70.82 Mt CO2 equivalent, before displaying a downward trend to 2014. Emissions increased by 4.0% and 3.8%, respectively in the years, 2015 and 2016 and remained relatively stable in 2017 and 2018, followed by a 3.0% decrease in 2019. In 2020 total national GHG emissions were 3.6% lower than 2019 emissions largely driven by the covid restrictions. The gradual lifting of covid restrictions in 2021 along with an increase in the use of coal and less renewables within electricity generation resulted in a 4.5% increase in emissions in 2021 compared to 2020. A 2.0% decrease in emissions was seen in 2022 compared to 2021, mainly due to a substantial decrease in residential sector emissions combined with decreases from industry, agriculture and electricity generation. this was followed by a 6.8% reduction in emissions in 2023.
Ireland's GHG emissions have decreased by 1.2% from 1990-2023.
In relation to the greenhouse gases; carbon dioxide (CO2) accounted for 61.0% of the total, with methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) contributing 28.9% and 8.8% as CO2 equivalent, respectively and F-gases contributing 1.3% of the total as CO2 equivalent.
In 2023, the energy industries, transport and agriculture sectors accounted for 73.5% of total GHG emissions. Agriculture is the single largest contributor to the overall emissions, at 37.8%. Transport, energy industries and the residential sector are the next largest contributors, at 21.4%, 14.3% and 9.7%, respectively.
