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Project title

Climate Change in Ireland: Refining the Impacts

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

n/a

Lead Organisation

Maynooth University (MU)

Lead Applicant

John Sweeney

Project Abstract

Global Climate Models (GCM) have greatly improved in reliability and resolution as computing power has increased and better inputs from earth observation have become available. Despite this they remain too coarse in terms of their grid size to enable climate scenarios at the scale necessary for impact analysis to be achieved. This study employs a statistical downscaling approach to overcome these difficulties and also provide new information on model uncertainty with a view to reducing uncertainty in key sectors such as water resource management agriculture and biodiversity.i Mean annual temperatures in Ireland have risen by 0.7oC over the past century. Using a multimodel ensemble involving three different GCMs for downscaling to the Irish Synoptic Station network this study concludes that mean temperatures in Ireland relative to the 1961-90 averages are likely to rise by 1.4-1.8oC by the 2050s and by in excess of 2oC by the end of the century. Summer and autumn are projected to warm much faster than winter and spring with a pronounced continental effect becoming apparent whereby the midlands and east warms more than coastal areas. With temperature projections of this kind a high degree of confidence exists.i Future precipitation changes in Ireland are subject to greater uncertainty with all modelling approaches. Nonetheless these are suggested to be the most important aspect of future climate change for Ireland. Using an approach based on General Linear Modelling winter rainfall in Ireland by the 2050s is projected to increase by approximately 10% while reductions in summer of 12-17% are projected by the same time. By the 2080s winter rainfall will have increased to 11-17% and summer rainfall will have reduced by 14-25%. Spatially the largest percentage winter increases are expected to occur in the midlands. By the 2050s summer reductions of 20-28% are projected for the southern and eastern coasts increasing to 30-40% by the 2080s.i Changes in the frequency of extreme events will accompany these climate changes. Lengthier heatwaves a substantial reduction in the number of frost days lengthier rainfall events in winter and more intense downpours in summer are projected. At the same time an increased summer drought propensity is indicated especially for eastern and southern parts of Ireland. Hydrological modelling based on nine key catchments were undertaken using the future scenarios developed above. Significant reductions in soil moisture storage were projected.

Grant Approved

�697,598.67

Research Hub

Climate Change

Research Theme

Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Sinks, and Management Systems

Start Date

01/12/2001

Initial Projected Completion Date

n/a