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Project title

Decision-Support Tools for Managing Urban Environment in Ireland

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

n/a

Lead Organisation

University College Dublin (UCD)

Lead Applicant

Frank Convery

Project Abstract

The Greater Dublin Region was one of the fastest growing urban regions in Europe during the period 1990 i- 2006. Therefore it offers a good example of the complex interactions at play in fast-growing city regions and provides a suitable test-bed for developing innovative decision-support systems. It is also home to over 50% of Irelandi's population and therefore environmental improvements which can be brought about for residents of this region will have a significant impact in terms of both quality of life and national economic performance.The interactions between urban development spatial configuration and the natural environment are complex and therefore difficult to manage effectively. An integrated and evidence based approach is needed to ensure that decision-makers can adequately assess the effect of different policy options in a robust and objective way. Also the approach needs to be able to take account of a range of interactions which are difficult to capture and have different and interconnected environmental impacts. An integrated framework such as MOLAND which is spatially explicit utilises the considerable power of geographical information systems and includes the capability to simulate future land use change based on socio-economic activity as well as environmental themes is one means to analyse these interactions and the associated implications.Research MethodologyThe MOLAND model developed under the aegis of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission by RIKS b.v. is a state-of-the-art dynamic land use change model which has been applied to a number of city regions in Europe. It was developed in response to the need for an integrated and robust framework for assessing policy options relating to land use change in Europe. This research adapts the MOLAND model for application in the Greater Dublin Region through updating the model with region-specific information as well as extending its scope to provide analytical capacity relating to five priority environmental themes.The research with MOLAND initially involved understanding the process of adapting the model regarding data collection data preparation calibration validation and indicator development etc to allow use in the Dublin region. This model was subsequently used and applied as a tool in specific decision-making contexts to support decision making processes in areas including scenario generation comparison of scenario outputs application of environmental indicators and their analysis.Within each thematic area i- air quality urban transport urban biodiversity climate change and urban sprawl i- both primary and secondary data was gathered and analysed to both inform the development ofthe Dublin Region application of MOLAND as well as to explore theme specific research hypotheses. Once the model had been fully calibrated and tested it was then used to simulate future scenarios for the region.The scenariosi' approach provides a tool for reaching a better understanding of the possible outcomes of different policy options as well as providing a means of exploring the effects of the business as usuali' scenario. It also enables qualitative storylines to be converted into quantitative scenarios the effects of which can be measured repeated compared and analysed.Two additional applications were selected in collaboration with stakeholders; one relating to the provision of wastewater treatment facilities in the Greater Dublin Region and another relating to regional settlement strategies to demonstrate how MOLAND could be used to support specific integrated decision-making processes.These applications show the practical use of the tools developed during the project in real-worldi' policy settings. In order to compare scenarios sample indicators were developed which provide quantitative measures of the key environmental impacts related to the land use changes which are simulated under the different scenarios. Some of the indictors are spatially explicit and can be used to assess the spatial aspects of alternative spatial planning strategies and environmental policies

Grant Approved

�1,215,191.00

Research Hub

Natural Environment

Research Theme

Soils and Land-Use

Start Date

01/02/2006

Initial Projected Completion Date

n/a