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Project title

Ecosystem tipping points: learning from the past to manage for the future

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

n/a

Lead Organisation

Galway-Mayo Institute of Technology (GMIT)

Lead Applicant

Deirdre Brophy

Project Abstract

This project uses existing data resources for Ireland�s marine environment to build empirical understanding of the relationships between pressures and ecosystem structure and functioning and develop tools for the detection of ecological tipping points. This will inform the development and implementation of policy by enabling decision makers to assess current ecosystem status, evaluate ecosystem service trade-offs and predict effectiveness of management interventions. The methods developed for the Celtic Sea ecosystem will be applicable to other systems. The project addresses current knowledge deficits, improves understanding of how ecosystems important to Ireland have changed and provides tools to improve forecasting of future changes. Using the Celtic Sea as a model ecosystem, the study will integrate available long-term datasets and interrogate temporal dynamics in several interdependent functional groups (plankton communities; fish species; seabirds; marine mammals). Novel statistical approaches will be used to identify coherence in dynamics and to detect change points indicative of regime shifts. Causal inference methods will help to identify external drivers of observed change (environment and human impacts). Linkages between oceanic and coastal environments will be explored. Methods for detecting thresholds and candidate early warning indicators will be developed in a simulation modelling framework and validated using empirical data. Expected outputs from the project include: 6-8 peer reviewed open access publications in high impact international journals Integrated database which will enable future research and monitoring of ecosystem change Data visualisation tool to assist exploration of ecosystem change and enhance the communication of research ideas with stakeholders, policy makers and the general public Online educational resources to enhance the public�s understanding of ecosystem change and the value of ecosystem services Interactive simulation tool to allow researchers, policy makers and stakeholders to explore likely effects of change (via human impacts/exploitation or environmental change) on ecosystem structure, functioning and stability

Grant Approved

�338,897.73

Research Hub

Natural Environment

Research Theme

Natural capital and ecosystem services including soils and biodiversity

Start Date

08/06/2015

Initial Projected Completion Date

07/06/2018