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Project title

Fire, Land and Atmospheric Remote Sensing of EmissionS-Projections, Policy and Land use and cover Synthesis

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine (DAFM)

Lead Organisation

University College Cork (UCC)

Lead Applicant

Fiona Cawkwell

Project Abstract

FLARES-PPLUS builds on the work of the EPA funded FLARES project (Fire, Land and Atmospheric Remote Sensing of EmissionS, EPA 2019-CCRP-MS.65) which developed a methodology for deriving burned areas and estimating emissions from wildfires (defined as vegetation biomass burning events that leave a spatial signature in terms of charred vegetation) that occurred in Ireland over the period 2015-2021. This methodology, applied to Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 satellite imagery will be extended to derive annual wildfire burned area maps and total affected areas from medium resolution satellite imagery (Landsats 4-9, Sentinel-2, RapidEye and SPOT as required) for the Republic of Ireland from 1990-2024 inclusive. The land cover classes affected by wildfires will be determined from the annual burned area maps and relevant land cover datasets, such as CORINE land cover maps, the new OSi National Landcover Dataset, and geographical or habitat focused maps generated for other purposes. This information will be used to refine estimates of gaseous emissions and particulates, based on standard values for emission factors, in addition to species-specific factors generated in the FLARES project for gorse, heather and purple moor grass. An evaluation of the spatio-temporal changes in the timing and distribution of wildfire events from 1990-2024, and the impacts of these changes in terms of land cover classes affected and the gaseous and particulate emissions emanating from those fires will be undertaken. Using numerical modelling techniques and a range of predictor values generated from weather reanalysis data, topography, socio-economic parameters and information on land use policy and management, the nature and strength of relationships between drivers of wildfires and occurrence of fire events over the period 1990-2024 will be determined. This model will then be projected forwards using future climate change projections and land use scenarios to evaluate potential changes in the timing and distribution of wildfire events that could arise between 2040 and 2060, with a less detailed projection to 2100 given the increased uncertainties in land cover and use and regional scale climate changes further into the future. The impacts of previous land management, agriculture and forest policies on wildfire timing and distribution will be assessed, with the goal of informing future such policies particularly in light of the move towards carbon neutrality and sustainability. A focused case study on spatio-temporal trends in wildfire events on areas of peatland will be undertaken given the unique nature of this land cover in terms of biodiversity and carbon storage, and how such areas may be affected up to 2060 will be evaluated. The outputs of the work will be disseminated via media and social media, academic conferences and journal papers, a stakeholder workshop, and an online web portal illustrating the historic fires mapped from satellite imagery.

Grant Approved

�245,397.58

Research Hub

Climate Change

Research Theme

n/a

Start Date

01/03/2023

Initial Projected Completion Date

28/02/2025