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Project Code [2014-CCRP-MS.23]

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Project title

High-Resolution Climate Projections for Ireland � a Multi-Model Ensemble Approach.

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

n/a

Lead Organisation

National University of Ireland Galway (NUIG)

Lead Applicant

Paul Nolan

Project Abstract

The goal of the proposed research is to simulate climate change in Ireland at high spatial resolution using Regional Climate Models (RCMs). The research will consolidate and greatly expand on previous research carried out by the proposed research team. This research shows large uncertainty in certain climate projections such as annual precipitation. The proposed research will reduce this uncertainty and provide sharper estimates of expected climate change. This will be achieved by increasing the ensemble size and employing more up-to-date RCMs, GCMs and the RCP (2.6, 4.5, 6 and 8.5) scenarios to simulate the future climate of Ireland. The accuracy of the model predictions will be enhanced by increasing the model resolution (~3km). The high-resolution simulations will focus on Ireland and run to 2060. The low-resolution outer-domain simulations will be extended until 2100 and will contribute towards the Euro-CORDEX project. The research will be carried out in close collaboration with Met �ireann and the EPA, and will lead to a substantial advance in our knowledge and understanding of the impacts of climate change in Ireland. The research will provide researchers and policy makers with high-quality, high-resolution and robust projections, enabling them to mitigate the effects of climate change.

Grant Approved

�209,714.80

Research Hub

Climate Change

Research Theme

Ireland's Future Climate, its Impacts, and Adaptation Options

Start Date

02/02/2015

Initial Projected Completion Date

01/02/2017