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Project title

Land integrated modelling for net Zero emissions, Nutrient efficiency and Ecosystem Services delivery

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

Department of Agriculture, Food and Marine (DAFM)

Lead Organisation

National University of Ireland Galway (NUIG)

Lead Applicant

David Styles

Project Abstract

Ireland’s agriculture, forestry & other land use sector is responsible for over 40% of national GHG emissions and 99 % of ammonia emissions, as well as being a major contributor to declining water quality - 55 % of Ireland’s water bodies risk failing to meet environmental standards. Ongoing expansion of efficient grass-fed dairy production that supports a vibrant agri-food sector, and a low rate of afforestation, threaten to move the AFOLU sector further away from ambitious climate action targets to reduce national emissions by 51% by 2030, and to achieve climate neutrality by 2050. Meanwhile, over 70% of Ireland’s land area is exploited for agriculture. Recent research in the EPA-funded SeQUEsTER project has highlighted that climate neutrality can only be achieved through concerted action across the agriculture, forestry and peatland management sectors, involving diversification of circa 0.5 to 1 million hectares of grassland away from livestock production. LandingZoNES will take the state-of-the-art (SotA) national biophysical (GOBLIN) and economic (BIO) models developed and applied in SeQUEsTER, and integrate them into a novel spatial modelling framework to undertake cutting-edge integrated assessment of land use scenarios in Ireland. The project will employ an efficient nested model approach, that couples existing models by linking key data flows, rather than attempting to build a new, fully integrated model. A new intermediate catchment scale model will be at the heart of this approach, in turn based on the LURNZ model applied in a similar context in New Zealand. The new model framework will span farm-level decision making (SMILE model) to national scale emissions modelling (GOBLIN) to generate key indicators of land use sustainability across air emissions (GHGs and ammonia), nutrient losses to water at catchment scale and economic outcomes at farm and national scale. This will be supplemented by ecosystem services screening through consultation with relevant expert stakeholders working on related projects, generating new evidence on sustainable "landing zones" for Ireland's land sector. The model framework will be future-proofed by aligning with national inventory reporting for GHG emissions and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) explored at coarse resolution in global Integrated Assessment Models. Specific objectives are to: • Include technical abatement coefficients for prospective technologies, cascading uses of harvest wood and bioenergy in the GOBLIN model to refine identification of land sector and agriculture activity combinations compatible with climate neutrality and ammonia emission limits under the Emissions Ceiling Directive • Recalibrate the BIO model with latest economic data to estimate macro-economic effects of (climate neutral) land use scenarios, including consequences in downstream sectors • Couple national land use and economic modelling with farm-level economics and spatial maps of potential constraining factors (e.g. soil types) using the SMILE model, in order to estimate spatial distributions of land use changes • Develop a river catchment layer of modelling that relates land use and management nutrient loss coefficients to surface water quality • Integrate quantitative metrics on GHG and ammonia emissions and water quality with qualitative metrics of resilience and ecosystem services delivery for a range of potentially sustainable national land use scenarios

Grant Approved

�309,790.00

Research Hub

Natural Environment

Research Theme

n/a

Start Date

01/03/2023

Initial Projected Completion Date

28/02/2026