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Project title

National Afforestation Model

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

n/a

Lead Organisation

Teagasc

Lead Applicant

Mary Ryan

Project Abstract

This project develops an analytical framework to assess the economic, social and environmental impact of converting agricultural land to forestry. The scope of the analysis will be the entire value chain from land use to consumer use via processing, with the analysis being grounded in the bio-physical characteristics of the agricultural and forestry land uses. The forestry analysis will be grounded in biological yield curves and associated economic analysis, based on a pilot bio-economic systems model developed as a Teagasc PhD, extending the range of species modelled. The value chain analysis will be undertaken using an Input Output modelling framework, adapted for the Bio-Economy sector (BIO). There is a strong focus on the agricultural sector in this model reflecting the underlying biophysical and economic attributes, utilising information from the Teagasc National Farm Survey. However, the forestry analysis is restricted due to data limitations. Building upon recently collected data by the CSO, COFORD and the forestry Divisions of DAFM, the model will be amended to reflect a more realistic forestry sector. As the forestry life-cycle is longer than a single year typically contained in Input-Output models and given that the sector is not in a steady state, a novel framework will be incorporated to improve the modelling of the forestry sector. In order to account for environmental impacts a, carbon (forest scale) model will be incorporated, consistent with current National Inventory Report guidelines. The social impact will be modelled incorporating employment impacts of land use changes. Teagasc Forestry Knowledge Transfer staff will incorporate the model outputs in its annual Outlook Conference, will prepare a Sustainability Report on afforestation and will incorporate outputs as part of its ongoing advice to industry. Particular focus will be placed on making the modelling framework relatively easy to update without recoding, so that annual updating can take place by non-specialists as part of the normal analytical schedule associated with the Outlook and Sustainability Reports. Training will be provided to stakeholders in Teagasc, DAFM and the EPA to facilitate wider use. An evaluation will be undertaken in relation to progress towards Climate Action and policy targets in terms of the economic, environmental and social impacts of a range of livestock and forestry scenarios both at land use and value chain levels. This project provides a unique opportunity to create a new modelling framework, which can become a repository within Teagasc of over a decade of research on the economic, environmental and social impacts of the land use change from agriculture to forestry and the potential to mitigate agricultural impacts and meet Climate Action targets. In order to aid transparency, the code and parameters for bio-economic systems model and the carbon model will be made in an Open Source format and with a published modelling appendix, detailing all assumptions available for research.

Grant Approved

�88,076.88

Research Hub

Climate Change

Research Theme

n/a

Start Date

31/03/2023

Initial Projected Completion Date

30/03/2024