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Project Code [2016-CCRP-MS.37]

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Project title

Tools for Climate Change Attribution of Extreme Weather Events

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

n/a

Lead Organisation

University College Cork (UCC)

Lead Applicant

Paul Leahy

Project Abstract

One of the impacts of climate change which receives the most attention from the scientific community, the public, the media and policymakers is the change in magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events such as heavy rainfalls, droughts and heatwaves. Media reports frequently link extreme events to climate change, but until recently the scientific community was reluctant to attribute individual events or classes of events to climate change. However, climate modelling has now advanced to the point where probabilistic event risk �attribution studies� are possible, even in near-real time. This project will review methods and simulation datasets used to support climate change attribution studies. It will identify the best solution for extreme weather event attribution in the Irish context, assess for which classes of events attribution is possible with the tools available today, and apply it to case studies of specific past events with severe economic or social impacts, identified from a study of historic extreme events in Ireland. An end-to-end attribution study of a selected flood event will be made, coupling a hydrological model to a weather ensemble. Recommendations will be made on datasets, methods and tools for event attribution for Irish conditions.

Grant Approved

�241,919.53

Research Hub

Climate Change

Research Theme

Ireland's Future Climate, its Impacts, and Adaptation Options

Start Date

03/01/2017

Initial Projected Completion Date

02/01/2019