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Project title

Water JPI Project - Predicting in-lake responses to change using real time models (PROGNOS)

Primary Funding Agency

Environmental Protection Agency

Co-Funding Organisation(s)

n/a

Lead Organisation

Dundalk Institute of Technology (DKIT)

Lead Applicant

Eleanor Jennings

Project Abstract

Lakes in Ireland and across Europe are under pressures from cultural eutrophication, and changes in climate, including increases in the occurrence of extreme events. These can reduce water quality through, for example, promoting nuisance algal blooms, or higher levels of dissolved organic matter (DOM), and increase costs of water treatment. Increasingly, automated high frequency monitoring (HFM) systems are being adopted for water management across Europe. In Ireland, the Burrishoole catchment in Mayo includes two in-situ HFM systems on Loughs Feeagh and Furnace, and three river systems, and now has a unique >10 year data archive on key parameters. The PROGNOS project will develop an integrated approach that couples HFM data to dynamic models to forecast short-term changes in lake state, and inform management decisions to safeguard lake ecosystem services. The Irish partners and project consortium includes expertise from sites at the forefront of HFM monitoring systems since the late 1990s, expertise in modelling, and expertise in assessing societal benefits. They will use these resources to develop short-term water quality forecasts that can be based on weather forecast input, and long-term probability forecasts based forecasts from climatology inputs. The project will also include cost benefit analysis..... The major outputs from PROGNOS will be the demonstration of a new modelling system that allows near real time (NRT) forecasting for the water resources sector, and a cost benefit analysis on the use of these tools focused on specific case studies, (algal blooms and DOM), both of which are potential problems for Irish water supplies. In addition to traditional academic dissemination (reports, peer-reviewed publications, and conference proceedings), outputs for the water management sector will be targeted to ensure that relevant information on HFM, the case studies, and modelling tools become embedded in that community. Irish Water is a named external collaborator in PROGNOS and will directly benefit from the outputs from this project. The primary impact of PROGNOS will be the promotion of innovative solutions for water-related challenges which currently affect Irish water supplies (nuisance algal blooms and DBPs from DOM). The project will combine national capacity in monitoring (MI) and modelling (DkIT) with an international collaborative team, thereby leveraging European expertise to aid the management of Irish water supplies. The technology demonstrated here can transform water management and foster the growth of European companies that specialize in adaptive water management forecast systems.

Grant Approved

�148,248.00

Research Hub

Natural Environment

Research Theme

Innovative water technologies

Start Date

16/05/2016

Initial Projected Completion Date

14/05/2019