Authors: Paul Nolan, December 2024
Year: 2024
Climate change poses significant risks to Ireland’s economy, society and environment. To enable appropriate mitigation and adaptation measure into the future, it is imperative that planners and policymakers are informed about future climate change projections. Addressing knowledge gaps in regional climate projections, this research used scenario-based projections (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) to simulate the future climate in Ireland (up to the year 2100). It used the most up-to-date regional climate models at a higher resolution (4 km grid spacing). Broadly in agreement with previous research, this research projects increases in temperature and heatwaves, decreases in frost and snow, increases in both dry and heavy rainfall events, less wind and longer growing seasons among many other things. The research provides Ireland with data to explore its future climate and enables an assessment of impacts across sectors, at regional and local levels.
The National Environmental Coordination Group (NERCG) supports and promotes coordination and knowledge exchange between state bodies involved in funding Environmental research in Ireland., December 2024
Year: 2024
This report has been prepared by the EPA on behalf of the NERCG to highlight climate and climate-related funding by the members for the previous year.
Authors: Maria Markiewicz-Keszycka, Paul Hynds, Donal O’Brien, Maeve Henchion and Áine Macken-Walsh, October 2024
Year: 2024
New agricultural practices are needed to meet EU carbon reduction targets and avoid penalties for not reaching these targets. Reporting under the Habitats Directive also suggests that, overall, farming has a negative impact on nature and biodiversity, particularly on intensive farms. Climate change and biodiversity loss are expected to have far-reaching market, economic, business and policy impacts on the agricultural sector. This research desk study sought to develop recommendations for the pro-environmental diversification of dairy and beef farms by conducting a best practice literature review, interviews with innovative farmers, a national farmers survey and modelling the environmental impact of diversification scenarios. The research provides suggestions and solutions for key policy actors and stakeholders that address the challenge of designing environmental schemes that are efficient for nature, help address climate commitments and are economically attractive for farmers.
Authors: Nithiya Streethran, Kieran Hickey, Astrid Wingler and Paul Leahy, October 2024
Year: 2024
Ireland’s temperate climate favours almost year-round grass growth, which has supported the development of a successful pasture-based farming system. However, this has been threatened by repeated severe shortfalls in fodder stocks, with resulting impacts on yields, revenues, and animal welfare. Grass growth may be influenced by a number of factors, including droughts, heat stress and other drivers, which can lead to the emergence of a fodder crisis. This research identified the key drivers of historic fodder crises, and investigated whether such events will become more or less frequent or severe under the climatic changes projected for Ireland. An impact-based five-level fodder crisis severity index has also been designed to classify fodder crisis events. The research recommends the need for measures to avoid the emergence of multi-annual events, these include increases in stored fodder provision, early warning systems and earlier closure in autumn to help growth recovery in spring.
Authors: Rowan Fealy, Tim McCarthy, Rafale De Andrade Moral, Ajay Sathiyan Nair, Dazhi Li, Kazeem Ishola, Reamonn Fealy and Lilian O’Sullivan, September 2024
Year: 2024
Soil moisture interactions for climate, and their relevance for understanding hydrological, agricultural and ecological processes are recognised and acknowledged as important. Nonetheless, there is a paucity of soil water observations globally. Even at the regional and country scale, only limited observations are available. This research uses machine learning with remote sensing data and data from deployed in-situ soil moisture sensors to derive a harmonised soil moisture product for Ireland. Based on independent tests of the models it was found to largely reproduce the available soil moisture measurements. A key output from the research was the deployment of a number of in situ soil moisture sensors, which will support a national initiative to deploy an integrated network of soil moisture sensors across Ireland. The research highlights the need for an integrated monitoring infrastructure to facilitate consistently measuring soil moisture in Ireland.
Authors: Srinath Mahesh, Adam Clarke, Ben Fowler, Rebecca Rose, Aonghus McNabola, William Smith, David Timoney, Jasmine Wareham, Paul Willis and Bidisha Ghosh, September 2024
Year: 2024
In Ireland, transport accounts for about 20% of emissions, and 95.8% of these emissions are caused by on-road vehicles. Although several pieces of legislation and policies have been developed to tackle this issue the impact of these in reducing emissions have been lower than originally anticipated. A key challenge is the discrepancy between vehicle type approval tests and real-world emissions from vehicles powered by fossil fuels. This research addresses a knowledge gap about trends in the emission factors of vehicles that conform to different emission standards, use varying fuel types and have high mileage. Real-world measurement techniques were used to quantify emissions from over 130,000 vehicles, including cars, light goods vehicles, heavy goods vehicles and buses. Integrating the data into a dispersion model helped established a more accurate representation of air pollution levels in Dublin. It recommends low emission zones, vehicle restrictions and phasing out older vehicles.
Authors: David Styles, Colm Duffy, Remi Prudhomme, George Bishop, Mary Ryan and Cathal O’Donoghue, June 2024
Year: 2024
Ireland’s agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU) sector accounts over 40% of national greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The Climate Action and Low Carbon Development Act 2021 commits Ireland to reach a legally binding target of net-zero GHG emissions by 2050, yet emissions from this sector continues to rise. Globally, it is assumed that land management will provide a net carbon sink to offset residual emissions from agriculture and other sectors. However, Ireland’s land sector is a large net emitter of carbon dioxide (CO2) owing to large areas of drained organic soils and low afforestation rates relative to forest harvest rates. SeQUEsTER uniquely applied a back-casting approach to identify what “solutions” to net zero could look like for the agriculture and land sector.
Authors: Lilian O’Sullivan, Gary Lanigan, Daire Ó hUallacháin, Shiva Rahimi-Tanha and Kevin Black, March 2024
Year: 2024
The EU aims to be climate neutral by 2050. Central to this ambition is land management that supports carbon sequestration, and enhancement of carbon sinks or the reversal of their emissions. Current national greenhouse gas emission inventory submissions to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change show that the land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) sector is a net source of emissions in Ireland. However, emissions and removals are not currently disaggregated in national emission inventory estimates. Currently, hedgerows are not explicitly accounted for in national inventory reports.
Authors: Conor Murphy and Hadush Meresa, March 2024
Year: 2024
Higher greenhouse gas emissions are associated with large reductions in average summer and annual low flows in rivers. Changes in meteorological droughts in Ireland are driven by a transition to wetter winters and drier summers, together with increased evapotranspiration losses during summer and late spring months, leading to more frequent spring and summer droughts. The magnitude of future drought changes depends on future greenhouse gas emissions, with the most substantial changes found for higher emissions. Adapting to climate change in the water sector should place an increased emphasis on addressing the changing nature of droughts, especially across sensitive sectors. Using the latest climate models and emissions storylines, this research project assessed the projected impacts of climate change on flow conditions and droughts across 37 river catchments in Ireland.
Authors: Ilaria Bernardini, Mark Tucker, Moreno Stellini and Emmanouil Kakouris, February 2024
Year: 2024
Extreme weather events such as storms, landslides, river floods and coastal phenomena have threatened and damaged many different regions across Ireland. These events, while rare and often short-lived, can have a devastating impact on critical infrastructure systems. As a result of climate change, these events are becoming more frequent and more intense, affecting not only physical infrastructure but also the environment and society as a whole. Using risk-based approaches in assessing the impacts of extreme weather events and climate change is a well-established method of identifying the most vulnerable infrastructure, assessing the risks posed to that infrastructure and developing strategies to minimise those risks. This report presents an overarching risk assessment methodology for assessing risks posed to critical infrastructure by climate change.
The Climate Research Coordination Group (CRCG) supports and promotes coordination and knowledge exchange between state bodies involved in funding climate research in Ireland., February 2024
Year: 2024
This report has been prepared by the EPA on behalf of the Climate Research Coordination Group
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Authors: Conor Murphy, Kevin Leonard, Rory Moore and Stephen Flood, February 2024
Year: 2024
The island of Ireland is one of the most open economies in the world for trade and finance. While Ireland’s open economy, trade and finance links have helped to generate significant wealth and improve living standards, this also makes Ireland among the most vulnerable to climate change’s impacts on international trade. Transboundary Climate Risks (TCRs) cross national borders and are associated with the impacts of climate change. The Transboundary Climate Risks for the Island of Ireland (TCRII) project undertook a literature review and worked with stakeholders to identify approaches for the assessment of TCRs and synergies that can be leveraged on an all-island basis. The findings informed recommendations for better accounting for these emerging risks, to realise the national climate objective of achieving a climate-resilient economy and society by 2050.
Authors: Eugene J. Farrell, Glen Smith, Anne Marie O’Hagan and Martin Le Tissier, February 2023
Year: 2023
The identification and increased awareness of climate change risks to Ireland’s coastal communities highlights the importance of building national resilience across socio-ecological and economic systems. This research investigated barriers to the environmental and socio-economic resilience of two coastal communities: Maharees, County Kerry, and Youghal, County Cork.
Authors: Marguerite Nyhan, Barry O'Dwyer and Yairen Jerez Columbié, October 2022
Year: 2022
Ireland has committed to achieving a net-zero and climate-neutral economy by 2050. The C-CHANGE project is focused on developing solutions and provides guidance on facilitating stakeholders’ and citizens’ participation in environmental and climate dialogues and thus in climate action nationally and internationally. The research outputs provide clear and flexible guidelines that can be adapted to different contexts, sectors and audiences by practitioners, researchers and authorities.
This report has been prepared by the EPA on behalf of the Climate Research Coordination Group, September 2022
Year: 2022
This fourth report presents a summary of the Climate Research Coordination Group’s activities in 2021.
Authors: Matthew Saunders, Gabriela Mihaela Afrasinei, Jesko Zimmerman, Alina Premrov, Kevin Black and Stuart Green, September 2022
Year: 2022
Soils contain more than twice the amount of carbon held in the atmosphere, but globally approximately 1600 million tonnes of carbon are lost from the soil each year due to cultivation and land use. This research highlights how large geospatial datasets can provide an excellent source of land use information and can detect land use change events at both national and regional scales. The rule-based land use and soil inventory coupled with the soil cluster approach developed in this work could be implemented in current national land use mapping activities to enhance our ability to assess the impacts of land use and land use change on soil carbon stocks.
Authors: Peter Medway, Dug Cubie and Martin Le Tissier, August 2022
Year: 2022
Climate research tells us that extreme weather events will become more frequent and severe. Climate change adaptation (CCA) focuses on the probable chronic long-term impacts likely to occur across multiple sectors. In contrast, emergency planning and disaster risk reduction (DRR) primarily aims to address acute short-term impacts. The project identifies how existing approaches to disaster risk reduction, disaster risk management (DRM) and CCA in Ireland are juxtaposed and concludes that identifying ways to promote coordination and align incentives, priorities and planning processes will facilitate a more holistic and comprehensive approach to DRM at all levels of government.
Authors: Mark Scott, Louise Burns, Mick Lennon and Oliver Kinnane, August 2022
Year: 2022
Climate change risks present a clear challenge for Ireland’s built environment. Adaptation is the critical second pillar of climate action alongside mitigation. This needs an urgent whole-of-government and whole-of-society approach. There is significant scope for increasing policy coherency towards adaptation through the planning system, building control, building regulation performance requirements, industry standards and building design specifications.
Authors: Gerard Mullally, Alexandra Revez, Clodagh Harris, Niall Dunphy, Fionn Rogan, Edmond Byrne, Connor McGookin, Brian Ó Gallachóir, Paul Bolger, Barry O’Dwyer, Stephen Flood, Evan Boyle, James Glynn, John Barry and Geraint Ellis , July 2022
Year: 2022
Ireland faces considerable challenges in transitioning to a net-zero carbon and climate resilient future. This research focused on the challenge of engaging citizens and communities in climate action while also recognising that new and novel approaches are required to enable the transition to climate resilience. The co-creation of the Deliberative Futures Toolkit together with local, scientific and policy communities, provides a resource that can be used by communities and policymakers.
Authors: Astrid Wingler, Fiona Cawkwell, Paul Holloway, Gourav Misra, Rubén de la Torre Cerro and Calum Sweeney, March 2022
Year: 2022
The PhenoClimate project determined the impact of climate change on seasonal life cycle (phenological) events and the consequences for species interactions. For Irish woodlands, an advance of the growing season in spring was identified using satellite remote sensing. Arrival of migratory birds was found to advance too, however, instances in which migratory birds showed asynchrony with insect first flight dates were identified, suggesting that climate change can result in phenological mismatch.
